Wesfarmers pushes for September 28 opening

Retail giant Wesfarmers has offered to co-design COVID-19 protocols with the Victorian government to enable shops to start opening from September 28, a month earlier than the existing plan.

The decimated retail industry has predicted that as many as half the state's small stores are headed for permanent collapse under the current road map.

Major Wesfarmers businesses such as Bunnings, Officeworks and Kmart traded safely under previous stage three restrictions, but under the existing plan will not be able to reopen until October 26.

Melbourne's property market will also remain closed during the busy spring auction season and the real estate industry wants house inspections by appointment to be allowed from September 28, when construction and some manufacturing will also restart.

"We would welcome the opportunity for further collaboration with the Victorian government and health officials about how our retail businesses have evolved to be COVID-safe and how they could further adjust, if required, to meet concerns about reducing people movement," Wesfarmers boss Rob Scott told The Australian Financial Review.

"Many of Wesfarmers businesses have been at the forefront of proactively managing the health response and supporting state government departments.

Mr Scott said Wesfarmers businesses were "open, large-format stores with best-practice COVID-safe plans in place, and have served millions of customers a week without a single recorded customer transmission.

"We have a range of practical suggestions which could be rapidly implemented and support a resumption of more business activity without increased risk, such as more segmentation of low-risk retailing, greater physical distancing, store marshals and extended trading hours."

"We continue to hope we can work together to deliver a more optimal plan that safeguards health, but with less impact on people and their financial and mental wellbeing," Mr Scott said.

Victoria recorded 37 new cases of coronavirus on Monday and seven deaths, bringing the 14-day average of diagnoses in Melbourne to 54. It needs to drop below 50 for the state to move out of stage four restrictions on September 28.

Mr Scott's call comes as Australian Retailers Association chief executive Paul Zahra warned that the Andrews government's reopening plan was "looking more like a road crash than a road map" as it kept the shops closed during the busy Christmas season.

'Every week counts'

"We're 14 weeks away from Christmas and every week counts," Mr Zahra said, noting that many retailers earned up to two-thirds of their annual profit from October to December.

"We need to work to find a more balanced, not conservative, approach to reopening," he said, such as allowing stores to reopen but with mandatory masks, limits on shoppers per household, and COVID marshals such as those used in South Australia.

Mr Zahra noted that retail had remained open without major outbreaks in stage three and in other states, and that even in stage four "supermarkets have demonstrated they can open a really COVID-safe way and they've set a high benchmark".

The ARA predicts that without any easing of measures under the road map, 50 per cent of Victoria's small retailers could permantly close.

There are usually 36,000 properties sold and 12,000 auctions at this time of year in Victoria.

Real Estate Institute of Victoria president Leah Calnan called for one-on-one house inspections to resume at the end of September, saying this would allow the industry to get back on its feet without compromising public health.

"We're not aware of any cases spreading in real estate inspections across Victoria and agents were managing the infection risk before stage four," Ms Calnan said.

"And with only one person, you're not going to have the same level of movement as you might have had last year when you had 20 groups going through a property."

REIV held talks with the government last week about a possible exemption under the road map, but Ms Calnan said she "couldn't tell if there will be a change or not".

The CEO of the Victorian Chamber of Commerce, Paul Guerra, said other businesses should be allowed to reopen alongside manufacturing and construction on September 28.

“If that is the trigger point for that sector, it should also be the trigger point for the rest of business as well – and that's what we'd be aiming for," he said.

“We would hope that as more data gets fit into that model, we get to a point where we can open up. You know, if NSW has been able to do that successfully, why shouldn't Victoria be able to do the same thing?”

Outdoor dining push

The push to fast-track retail and real estate reopenings comes as the Andrews government launches a $290 million support package to allow the entertainment and hospitality industries to set up shop outdoors.

Premier Daniel Andrews announced on Monday that the scheme would offer $5000 grants to businesses to offset costs of moving outside, while local councils would also supported to fast-track planning and licensing changes to enable outdoor dining.

Mr Zahra said while the grants were welcomed by retailers, they only represented "a tiny portion of the costs that retailers are incurring", as rent and payroll form the bulk of their expenses.

"The best government support now for retailers is to allow a progressive reopening," he said.

Earlier reopening possible

University of Melbourne professor Tony Blakely said the October 26 threshold could be brought forward and at a higher threshold rate than the current five cases, assuming better contact tracing and smarter mask wearing

"If we can keep mystery cases low and keep clusters isolated ... then I think we could relax the trigger for getting to step three,” ProfessorBlakely said in an article posted to the university's research blog Pursuit.

Professor Blakely was part of the team the Victorian government asked to model the risks of a resurgence.

“These tweaks – I argue – could see us transition safely to step three at a higher threshold than five cases on average per day, and considerably earlier than the October 26 target, without too much increased risk."

Professor Blakely said the model found that releasing from stage three to stage two when the 14-day average was just 10 cases a day reduced the probability of a third wave to 10 per cent, while at just five cases per day the probability fell to 3 per cent.