I worked for the NSW government and I've seen Barilaro's tactics before
by Tim BesharaPremier Gladys Berejiklian holding her ground in the "koala wars" is the first time in more than a decade that a leader of a Coalition party at state or federal level has been willing and also able to stare down a threat from within over a climate or environment policy.
The tactics used by Deputy Premier John Barilaro have hung like the sword of Damocles over Liberal leaders of the federal and NSW coalitions since Barnaby Joyce first used them against Malcolm Turnbull during the Rudd-era climate debates.
The constant threat of self-immolation by members of the Coalition has allowed a small group to hold a disproportionate sway over the rest of their party room. Any MP who wanted to speak in favour of stronger environmental protection or more climate action has risked being attacked from within, and any minister who sought to advance a positive environmental or climate agenda risked bringing on a stand-off that could threaten their government.
I am writing this piece with a clear vested interest. I work for Wilderness Society and I’ll back a koala over John Barilaro any day. But I do have some insight into how these issues can play out in a Coalition government. In 2011, I was a ministerial staffer for the incoming NSW Liberal government with specific responsibly for providing advice regarding national parks, threatened species and native vegetation. If the "koala wars" had happened then, I would have been helping guide the policy at the centre of this latest controversy and been a liaison between ministers, MPs, agencies and other stakeholders.
But in 2011, the pressure from the Nats wasn’t specifically about koalas, it was about native vegetation laws. I had the task of having to brief bitterly angry Nationals MPs about their government’s review of the regulations under the Native Vegetation Act. The review didn’t go far enough for them. They didn’t want tinkering of regulations, they wanted the act gone.
And in that meeting I saw the same behaviours the public has been so bemused by during this koala debate: engaging in the policy process very late, a failure to understand how the policy actually works, a universal view that the environment matters but regulation could never be the answer, and no shared view about what any alternative could be.
A few years later, the Nats got their way and that law was replaced. As a result, the number of approvals to bulldoze vegetation has risen 13-fold which the Natural Resources Commission has warned amounts to a “statewide risk to biodiversity”.
Each time the Nats win like this, the Coalition takes a policy position that misaligns with the pro-environment views of the voters in many Liberal-held electorates. The wider the gap becomes the more likely the disconnect is likely to influence voter behaviour. And this is having electoral consequences for the Liberals.
It’s a myth that Labor is the only party which needs to seek the votes of people with pro-environment views as well those with more materialist concerns. If you believe Labor is wedged here, then you have to also acknowledge the wedge applies to the Liberals. As climate and species extinction crises become more visible, such as during the 2019-20 bushfires, the electoral dynamics shift further and no party can continue to ignore it.
Not even the Nats are immune. As National MP Paul Toole was reported to say, “It is important that the party not be seen as anti-koala”. The Nats lost Lismore at the last election to Labor and with almost 25 per cent of that electorate voting Greens. Geoff Provest, Nationals MP for Tweed, has repeatedly defended his narrow margin through activities such as joining a local march to protect koalas from development.
If you asked me why the NSW Premier was willing and able to stare down an internal environment revolt when others haven’t, I could reflect upon her obvious political competence or on the willingness of her cabinet members and backbench to hold firm. But if I had to identify one reason why revolt failed I’d say, "mathematics": as the maths of climate change and species extinction worsens, an anti-environmental policy platform increasingly becomes an electoral hazard that must be avoided to survive.
Tim Beshara is the manager of policy and strategy for the Wilderness Society.