Coronavirus in Mumbai: Growth rate no one wants to see

On Sunday, the city registered 2,085 new Covid-19 cases, taking its total to 1,69,693. On Saturday, the city registered a single-day count of 2,172 new cases. The death toll has jumped to 8,147, with 41 new deaths being recorded on Sunday.

Medical experts and officials from Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation’s (BMC) public health department have attributed this increase to the surge in the daily Covid-19 cases within the past few weeks. Experts have indicated that this could spell trouble for the city, as this is a sign that its Covid graph, which had begun to stabilise in the last two months, is showing an upward curve once again, due to Unlock 4.0, and the recently concluded Ganeshotsav.

Municipal commissioner Iqbal Singh Chahal said that the city was witnessing a spike in the number of cases only because the BMC hadramped up testing. "It would have been easier for us to stick to the 4,000 per day tests and show 500 cases per day, to claim how we have managed to arrest the number of daily cases. We have ramped up testing, conducting 9,000 tests per day now and are looking to augment it further, to 12,000 to 14,000 per day," said Chahal.

He added, "For the next few days, we might continue to get high number of cases per day. But there is nothing to be worried about, we have a grip on the virus and the situation in Mumbai is in better control as compared to other cities in the state."
According to experts, the more worrisome factor in the city's Covid-19 curve is the decline in the recovery rate. The recovery rate of Mumbai which had shown a rise in the last two months, began to drop from last week. On August 31, the city had recorded a recovery rate of 80 per cent, which declined t0 78 on September 12 and dropped to 77 per cent the following day.

Additional Municipal Commissioner Suresh Kakani said, “The increase in the number of active cases is a result of our recent unlock plans, the festival, and also because of the shift in the spread of Covid-19 from slums to high rises. As more affluent people are now turning positive, they rush to private hospitals and opt for prolonged treatment and stay.”

Doubling rates:
August 1: 78 daysAugust 7 : 89 daysAugust 15 : 85 daysSeptember 1 : 76 daysSeptember 12: 56 days

Case growth rate:August 1 : 0.90%August 7 : 0.78%August 15: 0.82%September: 0.92%September 12: 1.24%

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