Winter spike may lead to tighter Covid restrictions

JERSEY could follow the UK by further restricting gatherings and forcing people to wear masks in public indoor spaces if coronavirus cases spike this winter, the deputy medical officer of health has said.

Following a week which has seen a dramatic surge in cases in the UK and Prime Minister Boris Johnson imposing a six-person limit at social meetings, Dr Ivan Muscat said Jersey might also have to increase measures to help prevent a serious outbreak.

He said that although he was still hopeful of a vaccine this autumn, protective measures, such as wearing masks in shops, were now on the agenda.

‘We’ll be addressing this in the near future,’ Dr Muscat added.

‘Masks have a protective effect and also provide an important reminder that we are living in abnormal times and about the need to adhere to public health guidelines.’

Although the Island is currently basking in late-summer heat, Dr Muscat said the onset of winter was likely to see a rise in mortality and a greater focus on precautionary measures.

Rising infection rates in the UK and other parts of Europe have also prompted changes to the risk ratings used by Jersey for arriving passengers – see page 4.

‘People in Jersey need to digest the news from the UK [about new restrictions on gatherings] and be warned – if we do not tread carefully then we could be following in their footsteps.’

Dr Muscat added: ‘This is a reminder to us that Covid hasn’t gone away – it’s been making a comeback in many areas and we need to acknowledge that and be more careful to prevent a similar rise here.

‘Many people in Jersey, particularly younger folk, think that because we’ve had a reasonable month or two over the summer then there’s no longer a threat.’

Sticking to the guidelines about social distancing and the size of gatherings remained very important, along with hygiene measures, he said.

Although the numbers of hospital admissions in the UK are currently low – and no-one is hospitalised with Covid-19 in Jersey at present – Dr Muscat said this was no reason for complacency.

‘There’s no evidence that there’s been any change in the virus,’ he said. ‘Many countries have seen outbreaks, and although young people may not be seriously affected, the severity will increase according to age and decreasing temperatures.’

Dr Muscat said that every 1°C fall in temperature was likely to lead to a 15% rise in mortality for those with Covid-19.

‘As we go into winter we expect a natural push [in the virus] because of the drop in temperature, and increased transmission as people spend more time indoors,’ he said.

Dr Muscat said he still expected a coronavirus vaccine to become available soon.

‘I anticipate we’ll start seeing a vaccine in the autumn, but people must not think that because there’s a vaccine on the horizon they can let their guard down,’ he said.

‘It’s actually the other way round – they should take even more care not to contract Covid.

‘You can’t vaccinate people who are unwell and if there are higher levels of Covid then we will be using resources to treat patients which could otherwise be focused on vaccination.’

lLatest data, published on Thursday afternoon, showed the number of known active cases of Covid-19 in Jersey is 12, comprising four symptomatic cases and eight asymptomatic.