(Image: Getty)
Stats that say Man City will reclaim Premier League title from Liverpool FC
Jurgen Klopp's side have just a 23 per cent chance of defending their title.
by David ByromThe new Premier League season got off to an exciting start with some action-packed opening weekend of matches.
Liverpool began their title defence with an engrossing 4-3 win over newly-promoted Leeds United as Mo Salah’s hat-trick helped Jurgen Klopp’s men to victory.
Elsewhere, Arsenal and Leicester City both recorded comfortable victories.
So how much can be read into the weekend’s results?
FiveThirtyEight’s data model has updated its predicted table based on what happened over the weekend and it’s good news for Manchester City.
City have a 57 per cent chance of winning the title according to the data model and are tipped to finish on 89 points - nine clear of second-placed Liverpool.
Despite winning their opening game, Liverpool have just a 23 per cent chance of retaining their Premier League crown.
Manchester United are predicted to finish third, nine points further back, but have an eight per cent chance of winning the title and a 57 per cent likelihood of a top-four finish.
Chelsea are tipped to finish fourth, two points behind United and nine points clear of Leicester CIty in fifth.
Frank Lampard’s side have a 53 per cent chance of qualifying for the Champions League this season.
Leicester have a 25 per cent chance of making the Champions League after their winning start.
Arsenal are predicted to finish level on points with the Foxes and have a 23 per cent chance of making the top four.
Sign up to our free MCFC newsletter for the latest Kalidou Koulibaly transfer news
Want the lowdown and insight on Kalidou Koulibaly and City's transfer moves? Get the latest breaking Manchester City news and analysis every day direct to your inbox with our free MCFC newsletter
Sign up here - it only takes a few seconds.
The biggest losers from this latest prediction are Tottenham Hotspur, who are now predicted to finish in seventh following their defeat to Everton.
Spurs have just a 14 per cent chance of making the top four.
At the other end of the table, West Brom have a 49 per cent chance of being relegated after their opening-weekend defeat.
The Baggies are predicted to finish bottom on 34 points.
Fulham drop a place in the data model’s original prediction and are now predicted to finish second-bottom on 36 points with a 42 per cent chance of being relegated.
Leeds United are tipped to finish third bottom on 39 points, but they have a sizeable chance of safety, with a 31 per cent possibility of going down.
Aston Villa are predicted to avoid the drop by two points although Dean Smith’s side have a 25 per cent chance of going down.
Brighton, Newcastle, West Ham, Sheffield United and Burnley all have a 20 per cent or more chance of being relegated.
Predicted final table
- Man City - 89 pts
- Liverpool - 80 pts
- Man United - 71 pts
- Chelsea - 69 pts
- Leicester City - 60 pts
- Arsenal - 60 pts
- Tottenham Hotspur - 55 pts
- Wolves - 54 pts
- Everton - 53 pts
- Southampton - 48 pts
- Crystal Palace - 44 pts
- Burnley - 43 pts
- Sheffield United - 43 pts
- West Ham - 43 pts
- Newcastle - 43 pts
- Brighton - 43 pts
- Aston Villa - 41 pts
- Leeds - 39 pts
- Fulham - 36 pts
- West Brom - 34 pts
Sign up to our free MCFC email newsletter
Get the latest breaking Man City news and analysis every day direct to your inbox with our free MCFC newsletter
Sign up here - it only takes a few seconds.
How it works
FiveThirtyEight predict the outcome for the season using SPI ratings, which the website says are their best estimate of a team's overall strength.
Each team is given an attacking rating that represents the number of goals it is expected to score against an average team, and a defensive rating to represent the amount of goals it would concede.
Those ratings produce an overall SPI rating, which represents the percentage of points it would be expected to take on average from a game. Those ratings are then compared to an opposition's rating to simulate the outcome of a match.
From that, it is possible to simulate the outcome of a whole season.